Modeling of container throughput in Northern Adriatic ports over the period 1990-2013

This study presents dynamic models to forecast container throughput in the North Adriatic ports of Koper, Trieste, Venice, Ravenna, and Rijeka. Based on the numbers derived, we found a simple but efficient model to forecast the likelihood of increasing or decreasing traffic from year to year. The models are prepared based on available data; they are the Markov-chain annual growth rate model, a time-series trend model, a time-series trend model with periodical terms, and the gray system model. In the second part of the study, we explore a model for analyzing cooperation/competition relationships between these ports using a generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamic system. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.