Population change and migration in Stavropol' Kray: The effects of regional conflicts and economic restructuring

The paper, by a joint American-Russian team of researchers, examines major changes in population composition and migration structure in Stavropol' Kray since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition to documenting increased rural- to urban-migration, the authors explore impacts on the kray of nearby conflicts in ethnic republics of the North Caucasus and in Transcaucasia, particularly the shift in ethnic composition of rural rayons in eastern Stavropol' (from Russian to non-Russian populations) and migration of Armenians and Russians to cities in western Stavropol'. Responses to a December 2005 survey (conducted by the authors) on past and possible future moves are presented together with an assessment of factors underlying the decision to move (mostly economic), as mediated by age, economic status, and gender. Also included is a detailed account of shifts in a typical rayon (Krasnogvardeyskiy-the birthplace of Mikhail Gorbachev) revealing trends that bode ill for service provision and a turnaround in negative population trends.