Results of century analysis of rainfall and temperature trends and its impact on agriculture production in Bundelkhand region of Central India

Long-term rainfall and temperature trends of Bundelkhand region of India were investigated in this study. The annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends as well as seasonal and annual minimum, maximum and mean temperature trends were analysed using monthly data series of 102 years (1901-2002). Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope method were applied for trend detection and trend magnitudes determination. Significantly decreasing trends during monsoon were found with magnitude ranging from 1.049 mm/year to 0.497 mm/year. Both increasing and decreasing trends were found in the annual rainfall. Large fluctuations in temperature trends were observed. Based on the results of rainfall and temperature variability of the region, suitability classes for rain-fed agriculture were delineated. The negative growth rate was found in the cultivated area, production and productivity of paddy, peas and soybean during 1991-2010. Decreasing trends of rainfall and temperature during monsoon and increasing trends of rainfall and temperature in post-monsoon have been affected agricultural production of the region.