Tendency of Embodied Carbon Change in the Export Trade of Chinese Manufacturing Industry from 2000 to 2015 and Its Driving Factors

The manufacturing industry is an important part of the national industrial system, and is usually an industry with high carbon content. However, few studies have been carried out on the total amount, structure and the trend of the embodied carbon emission in the international trade of the Chinese manufacturing industry. Based on the input-output method, the thesis proposes the coefficient of direct carbon emission and complete carbon emission and a method for calculating the embodied carbon of the export trade. It also calculates the coefficient of direct carbon emission and complete carbon emission for the Chinese manufacturing sector from 2000 to 2015 and breaks down the embodied carbon change of export trade in the manufacturing industry to a technological effect, structural effect and scale effect by using the method of structural decomposition. Several inspiring conclusions could be drawn from the thesis. For example: (1) the coefficient of both the direct carbon emission and the complete carbon emission has been decreasing significantly, indicating the achievements of the energy saving and emission reduction of the Chinese manufacturing industry. (2) The embodied carbon emission from the manufacturing exports remains high and presents a rising tendency. The main sectors that export the embodied carbon includes S10 mechanical equipment and instruments, S9 metal products, S6 chemical industry, etc., which should be the key sectors on reducing embodied carbon in exports. (3) The driving force of the embodied carbon exports lies in the scale effect of the manufacturing industry, on which the technical effect of the industry has a significant negative effect. The structural effect should have a positive influence that takes on a rising tendency; generally, this effect is only two-thirds of the scale effect. Finally, the corresponding policy suggestions have been made.