Mode choice model with travel time reliability and commuters' travel behavior before/after a major public transportation service closure

In this study, a mode choice model explicitly considering travel time reliability is developed. This model quantifies travelers' attitudes towards travel time variability as well as average travel time. Data were collected from the morning commuters who have two or three alternative modes including some public transportation and private vehicles. The survey period includes both a normal period where all the transportation modes were available and an abnormal period where the main major public transportation service was closed. The model is applied to practical commuters' decision making, and one of the findings in the mode choice model is that they pay relatively large attention to the travel time variability. In this model, travel time variability is dealt with as the possibilities that the commuters arrive before or after their job starting time separately. The best-fit model indicates that the commuters pay more attention to early arrival and less to late arrival in the normal period. In the abnormal period, however, their attention shifts drastically to late arrival. This suggests that the commuters behave optimistically in the normal period and pessimistically in the abnormal period.