Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change

被引:36
|
作者
Basso, B. [1 ,3 ]
Dumont, B. [2 ]
Maestrini, B. [1 ]
Shcherbak, I. [3 ]
Robertson, G. P. [3 ]
Porter, J. R. [4 ]
Smith, P. [5 ]
Paustian, K. [6 ]
Grace, P. R. [7 ]
Asseng, S. [8 ]
Bassu, S. [9 ]
Biernath, C. [10 ]
Boote, K. J. [11 ]
Cammarano, D. [12 ]
De Sanctis, G. [13 ]
Durand, J. -L. [14 ]
Ewert, F. [15 ]
Gayler, S. [16 ]
Hyndman, D. W. [1 ]
Kent, J. [6 ]
Martre, P. [17 ]
Nendel, C. [18 ]
Priesack, E. [10 ]
Ripoche, D. [19 ]
Ruane, A. C. [20 ]
Sharp, J. [21 ]
Thorburn, P. J. [22 ]
Hatfield, J. L. [23 ]
Jones, J. W. [8 ]
Rosenzweig, C. [20 ]
机构
[1] Michigan State Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
[2] Univ Liege, Gembloux Agrobiotech, Terra & AgroBioChem Dept, Gembloux, Belgium
[3] Michigan State Univ, WK Kellogg Biol Stn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
[4] Montpellier Supagro, 2 Pl Pierre Viala, F-34060 Montpellier 02, France
[5] Univ Aberdeen, Inst Biol & Environm Sci, Sch Biol Sci, Aberdeen, Scotland
[6] Colorado State Univ, Dept Soil & Crop Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
[7] Queensland Univ Technol, Inst Future Environm, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
[8] Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL USA
[9] EU, JRC, Ispra, Italy
[10] German Res Ctr Environm Hlth, Inst Biochem Plant Pathol, Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen, Neuherberg, Germany
[11] Univ Florida, Dept Agron, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
[12] James Hutton Inst, Invergowrie, Scotland
[13] EFSA European Food Safety Author Parma, Parma, Italy
[14] INRA, URP3F, Lusignan, France
[15] Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Bonn, Germany
[16] Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, Stuttgart, Germany
[17] INRA, UMR759, Lab Ecophysiol Plantes Stress Environm, Montpellier, France
[18] Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, Inst Landscape Syst Anal, Muncheberg, Germany
[19] INRA, US1116, AGROCLIM, Avignon, France
[20] NASA, Climate Impacts Grp, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA
[21] New Zealand Inst Plant & Food Res, Christchurch, New Zealand
[22] CSIRO Agr, St Lucia, Qld, Australia
[23] USDA ARS, Natl Soil Tilth Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA USA
基金
瑞士国家科学基金会;
关键词
FOOD; ADAPTATION;
D O I
10.2134/ael2018.05.0026
中图分类号
S [农业科学];
学科分类号
09 ;
摘要
A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3 degrees C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3 degrees C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3 degrees C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6 degrees C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.
引用
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页数:5
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