Predictive factors for distant recurrence of colorectal cancer in patients after curative resection for stage I-III colorectal cancer in Australia

Purpose Distant recurrence is a devastating occurrence after colorectal cancer resection. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for distant recurrence following surgery. Methods All consecutive colorectal cancer resections with curative intent were included from a prospectively maintained colorectal cancer database. The primary outcome was to identify predictive factors for distant recurrence of colorectal cancer. Results A total of 670 eligible cases were identified with 88 (13.1%) developing distant recurrence during the follow-up period. The median time to distant recurrence was 1.2 years with the most common sites of distant recurrence being the lung (44.3%) and liver (44.3%). Predictive factors for distant recurrence in colon cancer included a high tumor, nodal, and overall stage of the primary cancer (p < 0.001 for all). Surgical complications (p = 0.007), including anastomotic leak (p = 0.023), were associated with a higher risk of developing distant recurrence in rectal cancer patients. Independent variables associated with distant recurrence included tumor stage (OR 1.61, p = 0.011), nodal stage (OR 2.18, p < 0.001), and both KRAS (OR 11.04, p < 0.001) and MLH/PMS2 (OR 0.20, p = 0.035) genetic mutations. Among patients with distant recurrence, treatment with surgery conferred the best survival, with patients < 50 years of age having the best overall 5-year survival. Conclusion Predictive factors for distant recurrence include advanced tumor and nodal stages, and the presence of KRAS and MLH/PSM2 mutations. Clinicians should be cognizant of these risk factors, and instate close surveillance plans for patients exhibiting these features.