Indicators for evaluating uncertainties of solute concentration prediction in wetland flows

Solute transport in wetland flows is an important process to understand for agricultural practices, providing essential information to assist in decision making and regulation for both cases of agricultural water contamination and agricultural pollution. Recent study has suggested that in the application of the one-dimensional Taylor dispersion model for solute concentration distribution in wetlands, uncertainties can arise even when contaminants are initially released at the same streamwise location. In this paper, we present an analytical study of instantaneous point-source release of solute in a wetland flow dominated by bank wall effects. The movement of the solute centroid and the long-term asymptotic Taylor dispersion coefficient are determined by the Aris concentration moment method, which are required for quantifying the streamwise distribution of the mean concentration and the transverse concentration distribution profiles. It is shown that the additional longitudinal displacement serves as a key indicator revealing the uncertainties of concentration distribution caused by different lateral positions of the contaminant release. More indicators including the lateral concentration distribution and the relative difference of the concentration are analyzed in detail. With given physical parameters, simple applications are provided to illustrate the streamwise transport of the solute plume centroid and the evolution of the additional longitudinal displacement affected by the bank wall effects.