Modeling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia

A three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a dynamic ice sheet component has been used to investigate the long-term evolution of the Greenland ice sheet and its effects on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to a range of stabilized anthropogenic forcings. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet volume should experience a significant decrease in the future. For a radiative forcing exceeding 7.5 W m(-2), the modeled ice sheet melts away within 3000 years. A number of feedbacks operate during this deglaciation, implying a strong nonlinear relationship between the radiative forcing and the melting rate. Only in the most extreme scenarios considered, the freshwater flux from Greenland into the surrounding oceans ( of ca. 0.1 Sv during a few centuries) induces a noticeable weakening of the AMOC in the model.