Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time

被引：2

作者：

DeCastro, Amy ^{[1
]}

Siems-Anderson, Amanda ^{[1
]}

Smith, Ebone ^{[2
]}

Knievel, Jason C. ^{[1
]}

Kosovic, Branko ^{[1
]}

Brown, Barbara G. ^{[1
]}

Balch, Jennifer K. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA

[2] Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA

[3] Univ Colorado, Earth Lab, Boulder, CO 80303 USA

来源：

FIRE-SWITZERLAND | 2022年 / 5卷 / 03期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

wildland fire detection; wildland fire behavior model; ignition point; sensitivity study; WILDLAND FIRE; WILDFIRE; UNCERTAINTY; SPREAD; FOREST; PREDICTIONS; SURFACE;

D O I：

10.3390/fire5030058

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Wildland fire behavior models are often initiated using the detection information listed in incident reports. This information carries an unknown amount of uncertainty, though it is often the most readily available ignition data. To determine the extent to which the use of detection information affects wildland fire forecasts, this research examines the range of burned area values and propagation directions resulting from different initiation point locations and times. We examined the forecasts for ten Colorado 2018 wildland fire case studies, each initiated from a set of 17 different point locations, and three different starting times (a total of 520 case study simulations). The results show that the range of forecast burned area and propagation direction values is strongly affected by the location of the initiation location, and to a lesser degree by the time of initiation.

引用

页数：15