An ocean-atmosphere index for ENSO and its relation to Indian monsoon rainfall

An Ocean-Atmosphere Index (OAI) for ENSO is developed using data on Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) over eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal values of OAI, SOI and SST have been computed for the seasons September-October-November (SON), December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and June July-August (JJA). Similarly SON to DJF, DJF to MAM, MAM to JJA and JJA to SON tendencies have been worked out for SOI, SST and OAI. The relationships between Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) and SOI/SST/OAI, (i) for the seasons SON, DJF and MAM before and after the monsoon and JJA concurrent with the monsoon and (ii) for SON to DJF and DJF to MAM tendencies before and after the monsoon, and MAM to JJA tendency concurrent with the monsoon have been explored. It is found that LMR is more influenced by SOI before the monsoon than it is influenced by SST before the monsoon and IMR affects SST after monsoon more strongly than it affects SOI after the monsoon. It is also observed that DJF to MAM tendencies for SOI, SST and OAI before monsoon are significantly related to IMR, among which the relationship between IMR and DJF to MAM tendency for OAI is the best.