Variation characteristics and quantitative study of permafrost degradation in the upper reaches of Heihe River, China

To quantitatively investigate the permafrost degradation and its effects on hydrological processes in the upper reaches of Heihe River, a surface frost number model was firstly constructed to simulate the permafrost distribution and degradation from 1980 to 2015. The variation characteristics of the DDF, permafrost area, low limit of permafrost, and active layer thickness were then determined in the study area. Furthermore, the Budyko framework was applied to quantify the contribution of permafrost degradation to runoff. The results indicated that the permafrost degradation was significant in the past 36 years, with an average decreasing rate of 80.4 km2/a in the permafrost area, an average increasing rate of 13 m/a and 0.61 cm/a in the low limit elevation and in the active layer thickness, respectively. It is also found that basin characteristic parameter in the Budyko framework is closely related to permafrost degradation in cold regions, 40% of whose change is contributed by permafrost degradation. In addition, it is revealed that permafrost degradation contributed more than 20% to runoff change in study area. This investigation also indicated that the runoff response to permafrost degradation has a 3 months delayed effect. This study deepens the understanding of the impact of permafrost degradation on hydrological processes.