NUCLEAR DETERRENCE: CONCEPTS AND RISKS

被引:0
|
作者
Dvorkin, Vladimir Z. [1 ]
机构
[1] Russian Acad Sci IMEMO, Primakov Natl Res Inst World Econ & Int Relat, 23 Profsoyuznaya Str, Moscow 117997, Russia
来源
关键词
types of massive nuclear strikes; launch-on-warning strike; early warning systems; decision-making time;
D O I
10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-12-50-55
中图分类号
D81 [国际关系];
学科分类号
030207 ;
摘要
Among the existing forms of exchange of massive nuclear strikes between strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States (first disarming, launch-on-warning, and retaliation strikes), launch-on-warning is the one that poses the biggest risk. The decision to carry out this type of strike can be made within a few minutes based on data from an early warning system. Since there is no way to completely rule out the possibility of errors in generation of that data, the main focus in the concept of nuclear deterrence should be made on the retaliation strike. This strike posture has always been used as a rationale for the composition of Strategic Rocket Force and Navy forces which focus on ensuring that weapons can survive a disarmament first strike from a potential adversary. This would allow more time for decision-making regarding the use of nuclear forces; therefore, due to the increased vulnerability of informational systems, the principles of a retaliation strike should be given more attention in planning operations involving strategic nuclear forces. Early warning systems should be used first and foremost for the global monitoring of missile and carrier rocket launches, i.e. monitoring accidental (unintended) and provocative missile launches, as well as for assessing nations' compliance with the Missile Technology Control Regime.
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页码:50 / 55
页数:6
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