Predicting Rural Ecological Space Boundaries in the Urban Fringe Area Based on Bayesian Network: A Case Study in Nanjing, China

Urban fringe areas are locations that compete between urban development and ecological protection; their ecological spatial boundaries face the risk of erosion and degradation. Previous studies have so far focused on the core area inside the ecological space. However, research on the ecological boundary zone has so far been insufficient. The delineation of ECR is based on large-scale administrative units, while it is less precise at the level of small-scale rural areas. This study selected Paifang village in Nanjing City as the study area and built a Bayesian network model to predict the ecological space boundary for 2030. The study also identified the driving factors and their mechanisms affecting the changes in the rural ecological space in an urban fringe area and put forward targeted suggestions for its protection. The results suggested that: (1) The ecological space of Paifang village will expand in 2030. Specifically, agricultural land has the greatest potential for restoration of ecological space, followed by shrubland and grassland, and water bodies and their surrounding areas are potentially shrinking ecological space. (2) Artificial construction activities will disturb the ecological space, with the change in agricultural land being the main factor affecting the change in the ecological space boundary. (3) The Ecological Conservation Redline has a significant effect on the protection of the rural ecological space. The results of this study can provide a reference for rural planning and the formulation of protection policies in urban fringe areas.