We present a data-driven benchmark system to evaluate the performance of new MCMC samplers. Taking inspiration from the COCO benchmark in optimization, we view this benchmark as having critical importance to machine learning and statistics given the rate at which new samplers are proposed. The common hand-crafted examples to test new samplers are unsatisfactory; we take a meta-learning-like approach to generate realistic benchmark examples from a large corpus of data sets and models. Surrogates of posteriors found in real problems are created using highly flexible density models including modern neural network models. We provide new insights into the real effective sample size of various samplers per unit time and the estimation efficiency of the samplers per sample. Additionally, we provide a meta-analysis to assess the predictive utility of various MCMC diagnostics and perform a nonparametric regression to combine them.
机构:
Mater Childrens Hosp, Paediat Resp Res Ctr, S Brisbane, Qld 4101, AustraliaMater Childrens Hosp, Paediat Resp Res Ctr, S Brisbane, Qld 4101, Australia
机构:
Department of Business Studies and Work Science, Kristianstad University, KristianstadDepartment of Business Studies and Work Science, Kristianstad University, Kristianstad
Smith E.M.
Thomasson A.
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机构:
Lund University School of Economics and Management, LundDepartment of Business Studies and Work Science, Kristianstad University, Kristianstad