Uncertainty, crowding aversion and tourism aversion in tourism destinations

The author analyses the implications of crowding aversion and tourism aversion for the economic performance of tourism destinations in the case of uncertain tourist inflows. He analytically characterizes all possible scenarios, showing how different the preferences of tourists (towards crowding) and residents (towards tourism) interact and affect the economic outcome. The paper shows that, when tourists are crowding-averse (crowding lovers), uncertainty leads to deterioration (improvement) of economic performance, while it does not affect performance at all when tourists are crowding-indifferent. However, assessing how this will be reflected in welfare changes is more complex, since it depends also on the degree of tourism aversion among local residents.