Marine heat waves, climate change, and failed spawning by coastal invertebrates

To investigate the timing and intensity of winter spawning by coastal invertebrates, we enumerated embryos in plankton samples collected in daily time series from January to March of 2014 (79 d), 2015 (73 d), and 2016 (74 d). Samples were collected near the mouth of the Coos Bay estuary in Oregon. We enumerated several hundred different morphologically distinct types of embryos and larvae representing at least five phyla. Forty-three embryo types were abundant enough (abundance > 500 over the time series) to enable statistical analysis. Twenty of these types were identified using genetic barcoding of which there were four nemerteans, four gastropods, four chitons, five polychaetes, and two echinoderms. In winter 2014, hydrographic conditions were similar to average historical values. Conditions in 2015 and 2016 were characterized by marine heat waves (MHWs). In 2015, the "warm blob"-anomalously warm water in the Northeastern Pacific-affected conditions and in 2016, there was a strong El Nino. In 2015 and 2016, winter spawning intensity was orders of magnitude lower than in 2014 and many taxa failed to spawn (11 and 24 in 2015 and 2016, respectively); spawning appears to have been adversely impacted by the MHWs. The MHW of 2015 has been attributed to anthropogenic global climate change while the 2016 El Nino may have been strengthened by climate change. The frequency, intensity, and duration of MHW are projected to increase dramatically with global warming, which may adversely affect reproduction and recruitment by numerous marine taxa.