Parameter Estimation on a Stochastic SIR Model with Media Coverage

被引：6
|
作者：
Li, Changguo [1 ]
Pei, Yongzhen [2 ,3 ]
Zhu, Meixia [2 ,3 ]
Deng, Yue [2 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] Army Mil Transportat Univ, Dept Basic Sci, Tianjin 300161, Peoples R China
[2] Tianjin Polytech Univ, Sch Sci, Tianjin 300161, Peoples R China
[3] Tianjin Polytech Univ, Sch Comp Sci & Software Engn, Tianjin 300387, Peoples R China
来源：
DISCRETE DYNAMICS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY | 2018年 / 2018卷
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
IMPACT;
D O I：
10.1155/2018/3187807
中图分类号：
O1 [数学];
学科分类号：
0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要：
Media coverage reduces the transmission rate from infective to susceptible individuals and is reflected by suitable nonlinear functions in mathematical modeling of the disease. We here focus on estimating the parameters in the transmission rate based on a stochastic SIR epidemic model with media coverage. In order to reduce the computational load, the Newton-Raphson algorithm and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique are incorporated with maximum likelihood estimation. Simulations validate our estimation results and the necessity of a model with media coverage when modeling the contagious diseases.
引用
收藏
页数：7
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