Assessing the probability of carbon and greenhouse gas benefit from the management of peat soils

This study proposes a method for assessing the probability that land management interventions will lead to an improvement in the carbon sink represented by peat soils. The method is able to. combine studies of different carbon uptake and release pathways in order to assess changes on the overall carbon or greenhouse gas budget, calculate the probability of the management or restoration leading to an improvement in the budget; calculate the uncertainty in that probability estimate; estimate the equivalent number of complete budgets available from the combination of the literature; test the difference in the outcome of different land management interventions; and provide a method for updating the predicted probabilities as new studies become available Using this methodology, this study considered the impact of: afforestation, managed burning, drainage, drain-blocking, grazing removal; and revegetation. on the carbon budget of peat soils in the UK. The study showed that afforestation, drain-blocking, revegetation, grazing removal and cessation of managed burning would bring a carbon benefit, whereas deforestation, managed burning and drainage would bring a disbenefit. The predicted probabilities of a benefit are often equivocal as each management type or restoration often leads to increase in uptake in one pathway while increasing losses in another. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.