Oil price volatility and real options: 35 years of evidence

There has been a surge in interest in the effects of uncertainty on investment decisions, motivated at least in part by the theory of real options. For example, Bloom (2009, Econometrica, 77, 623-685) shows that higher uncertainty causes firms to temporarily pause investment and hiring, generating sharp economic downturns. This paper investigates these effects by examining the response of disaggregated measures of production to volatility in oil prices. We find that increased oil price volatility has strong negative effects on the production of durable goods, such as transportation equipment, and oil exploration, such as the drilling of oil and gas wells.