Temporal and spatial trends in human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area in Northeast Brazil and their association with social vulnerability

Background Visceral leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease of great importance to public health due to its wide distribution and close relationship with social and economic conditions. This study aimed to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) in an endemic state in the Northeast Region of Brazil and its spatial correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI). Methods The study included all confirmed cases of HVL in Bahia from 2010 to 2017. A joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis. Incidence rates were smoothed by a local empirical Bayesian model. Global and local Moran indices and space-time scan statistics were used for identification of spatial clusters. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to investigate the relationship between HVL incidence and the SVI and MHDI. Results Cases of HVL demonstrated stationary behaviour during the period analysed. A significant association was observed between the HVL incidence rate and social vulnerability, with high-risk clusters concentrated in the central region of the state. Conclusions HVL has a strong correlation with social vulnerability in the state of Bahia. This study may provide assistance in planning actions and organizing health services to combat HVL.