Towards effective drought monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: implications from assimilating leaf area index and soil moisture into the Noah-MP land surface model for Morocco

被引：14

作者：

Nie, Wanshu ^{[1
,2
]}

Kumar, Sujay, V ^{[3
]}

Arsenault, Kristi R. ^{[3
,4
]}

Peters-Lidard, Christa D. ^{[5
]}

Mladenova, Iliana E. ^{[6
]}

Bergaoui, Karim ^{[7
]}

Hazra, Abheera ^{[3
,8
]}

Zaitchik, Benjamin F. ^{[1
]}

Mahanama, Sarith P. ^{[9
,10
]}

McDonnell, Rachael ^{[11
]}

Mocko, David M. ^{[3
,4
]}

Navari, Mahdi ^{[3
,8
]}

机构：

[1] Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA

[2] NASA, Goddard Earth & Sci Technol & Res GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[3] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Hydrol Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD USA

[4] Sci Applicat Int Corp, Mclean, VA 22102 USA

[5] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Earth Sci Div, Greenbelt, MD USA

[6] Foreign Agr Serv, USDA, Washington, DC USA

[7] Dubai Technol Entrepreneur Campus DTEC, ACQUAYLC Solut, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai, Saudi Arabia

[8] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[9] Sci Syst & Applicat Inc, Lanham, MD USA

[10] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD USA

[11] Int Water Management Inst, Water Climate Change & Resilience Program, Rome Off, Rome, Italy

来源：

HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES | 2022年 / 26卷 / 09期

关键词：

CLIMATE; JORDAN; WATER;

D O I：

10.5194/hess-26-2365-2022

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced more frequent and severe drought events in recent decades, leading to increasingly pressing concerns over already strained food and water security. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is thus critical to support risk mitigation and management by countries in the region. Here we investigate the potential for assimilation of leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture observations to improve the representation of the overall hydrological and carbon cycles and drought by an advanced land surface model. The results reveal that assimilating soil moisture does not meaningfully improve model representation of the hydrological and biospheric processes for this region, but instead it degrades the simulation of the interannual variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon fluxes, mainly due to model weaknesses in representing prognostic phenology. However, assimilating LAI leads to greater improvement, especially for transpiration and carbon fluxes, by constraining the timing of simulated vegetation growth response to evolving climate conditions. LAI assimilation also helps to correct for the erroneous interaction between the prognostic phenology and irrigation during summertime, effectively reducing a large positive bias in ET and carbon fluxes. Independently assimilating LAI or soil moisture alters the categorization of drought, with the differences being greater for more severe drought categories. We highlight the vegetation representation in response to changing land use and hydroclimate as one of the key processes to be captured for building a successful drought early warning system for the MENA region.

引用

页码：2365 / 2386

页数：22