Contributions to scenario methodology from approach to sociotechnical transitions: a theoretical-methodological essay

Scenario methodology is complex, with numerous derivative approaches and variations. Although, its multiple techniques and tools make it possible to analyze problems considered 'wicked' - of low probability and high impact. Given this, our theoretical-methodological essay initially describes the premises and compares the features of the scenario Schools: Intuitive-Logics, Probabilistic Modified Trends, and La Prospective. The interfaces and complementarities among the methods applied for the scenarios and the approach of sociotechnical systems (STS) are made explicit in order to highlight their theoretical contributions to qualify the rigorous operationalisation of the definition of scenarios, considering the particularities of each School. Our effort provides insights that enhance the use of the scenario methodology to contextualise scientific investigations in a complex, uncertain, and dynamic environment, characteristic of contemporary society, in which disruptive technological innovations encourage the occurrence of phenomena that find theoretical support in the approach of sociotechnical transitions.