Landscape forest impacts the potential activity time of an invasive lizard and its possibilities for range expansion in Taiwan under climate warming

Climate warming may have an impact on invasive species and their ecological consequences. Invasive reptiles, which have temperature-dependent physiology, are expected to be greatly impacted by climate warming, though data supporting this is limited. We investigated the potential impact of a warmer climate on an invasive lizard, Eutropis multifasciata, in Taiwan. A mechanistic model, NicheMapR, was used to simulate the maximum activity time available at three elevations, with varying forest densities, under the current climate and a warmer scenario. The results show that climate warming will provide this species more time for activity in the currently occupied lowland region but not in the mountain areas, which are covered with dense forests. However, if the landscape becomes more open in mountain areas, it will become more suitable for this species and may enable an expansion upslope. Our results show that climate warming has a positive impact on this species, and that landscape's characteristics profoundly modulate its impact and the possibilities for elevational expansion in the future.