Predictors of endoscopic treatment outcome in the management of biliary complications after orthotopic liver transplantation

Background and aims The most common complications after liver transplantation nowadays affect the biliary tract. We carried out a retrospective study to identify predictors of endoscopic treatment outcome in the management of post-transplantation biliary complications. Methods Data from all patients with post-transplantation biliary complications subjected to endoscopic treatment at the University of Udine between 2000 and 2012 were extracted. To identify predictors of endoscopic treatment outcome, a logistic regression analysis was carried out. Cox modeling was used to identify factors associated with mortality. Results We identified 142 patients who developed biliary complications: 83 of these patients had a successful endoscopic therapy, whereas 45 had a failure. Fourteen patients, who developed nonanastomotic biliary stricture, were excluded from the analysis. Patients with biliary complications who had pretransplant Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score more than 10 [odds ratio (OR) 3.88; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-12.95; P = 0.03] and stent retention time more than 12 months (OR 6.45; 95% CI 2.14-19.42; P < 0.01) were less likely to respond to endoscopic therapy. In contrast, both dilatation and stenting procedures (OR 0.10; 95% CI 0.03-0.30; P < 0.01) and 10 Fr diameter stent placement (OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.07-0.70; P = 0.01) predicted favorable endoscopic treatment outcome. Time to the occurrence of biliary complications of more than 3 months [hazard ratio (HR) 0.24; 95% CI 0.10-0.56] and placement of five or more stents (HR 0.31; 95% CI 0.12-0.79) were found to be protective against mortality, whereas hepatic artery thrombosis was a significant risk factor for mortality (HR 13.88; 95% CI 4.08-47.25). Conclusion We found endoscopic treatment to be less effective in patients with pretransplant Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score more than 10 and stent retention time more than 12, whereas dilatation and stenting procedure and 10 Fr diameter stent placement predicted a favorable outcome. (C) 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.