Reliability-based seismic performance of masonry arch bridges

Seismic structural assessment of masonry arch bridges is essential due to their cultural, economic and strategic importance and vulnerability. A realistic and rigorous structural assessment is necessary in order to protect the bridges and use resources carefully. At this time, there are no standardised or widely accepted assessment procedures, and the performance criteria for masonry arch bridges are not available. This study presents an overarching reliability-based seismic assessment methodology based on analytical modelling, laboratory testing and probabilistic assessment. It investigates the performance criteria concept and proposes performance limit states. The methodology is applied to a historical masonry arch bridge in Turkey. To consider rigorously the uncertainties in material properties and seismic input, probabilistic nonlinear analyses are conducted using a detailed 3D finite element model. The results are combined with the proposed limit state definitions to generate the capacity and demand distributions. Both distributions are used in Monte Carlo simulation and First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) to estimate the probability of exceedance and reliability indexes for each limit state. The proposed probabilistic assessment methodology will be a useful approach to obtaining more reliable information about masonry arch bridges' expected seismic performance and for better-informed decision-making, especially when designing intervention actions and post-earthquake scenarios.