Predictors of initial abstinence in smokers enrolled in a smoking cessation program

The present study examined the relative contribution of nicotine dependence, self-efficacy and stages of change variables in predicting the initial abstinence of 102 smokers enrolled in a smoking cessation program. Over half the participants were female, the majority were White, and about half were married or living with a partner. Data were collected between 2000 and 2002. When smoking abstinence was defined as having a breath carbon monoxide (CO) level < 4 ppm within 24 hours of enrollment in the study, low nicotine dependence and a higher level of contemplation both predicted abstinence. When other potentially confounding variables were included in the analysis, neither nicotine dependence nor contemplation was predictive of abstinence. When abstinence was defined as the number of study baseline days in which the participant had a breath CO level < 4 ppm, multiple-regression analysis revealed that self-efficacy predicted abstinence. Self-efficacy remained predictive when other potentially confounding variables were included in the analysis. These results suggest that all three types of constructs are useful in predicting initial smoking abstinence.