Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues

被引：27

作者：

Strumbelj, E. ^{[1
]}

Sikonja, M. Robnik ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Fac Comp & Informat Sci, Ljubljana 1000, Slovenia

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 2010年 / 26卷 / 03期

关键词：

Sports forecasting; Brier score; Statistical tests; Soccer; Betting; MARKET; PERFORMANCE; EFFICIENCY; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.10.005

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

In this paper we examine the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts by analyzing 10,699 matches from six major European soccer leagues and the corresponding odds from 10 different online bookmakers. We show that the odds from some bookmakers are better forecasts than those of others, and provide empirical evidence that (a) the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts has increased over time, and (b) bookmakers offer more effective forecasts for some soccer leagues for than others. (C) 2009 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：482 / 488

页数：7

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