Regional Emigration Drivers in Romania. Comparative Analysis of Short- and Long-Term Emigration

Romania belongs in the top of European emigration countries and, regardless of whether the out-migration is unfolding on long- or short-term, its severe consequences make it a matter of interest for decision-makers and for the Romanian society at large. Empirical research on emigration drivers indicate that attempting to escape poverty and unemployment is at the background of many emigration decisions. Our goal is to explore some major causes of Romanian emigration from the perspective of the migrant's region of origin (push factors): low development (measured by GDP/capita), unsatisfactory income (captured by average wage), high probability of unemployment (unemployment rate) and education. We include these indicators as explanatory variables in parallel regression models for long- or short-term emigration, using county level data. In order to account for spatial dependence, spatial lag and spatial error, models have been estimated along-side classical regression. We exploit the new database issued by the National Institute of Statistics, resulting from the latest census, with the aim of finding similarities and dissimilarities between the Romanian long- and short-term emigration.