Risk for the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A prospective study

Background and AimNon-invasive assessment was widely used to identify the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among individuals with increased metabolic risks. This study aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between ZJU index and the development of NAFLD in a Chinese population. MethodsA cohort of 6310 initially NAFLD-free participants was enrolled in this prospective study. Abdominal ultrasound was used to diagnosis NAFLD. NAFLD incidence was calculated among participants with different baseline ZJU index quintiles. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to calculate the risks for incident NAFLD. ResultsDuring 37705 person-year follow-ups, 1071 incident NAFLD cases were identified. The baseline ZJU index was linear and positively correlated with NAFLD incidence. The incidence was 5.53, 11.75, 23.77, 43.28, and 85.60 cases per 1000 person-year follow-up for participants with baseline ZJU index in quintiles 1-5, respectively. Compared with participants with baseline ZJU index in quintile 1, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for incident NAFLD were 2.092 (1.458-3.002), 4.094 (2.942-5.698), 7.095 (5.167-9.742), and 13.191 (9.684-17.968) for participants with baseline ZJU index in quintiles 2-5, respectively. Further analysis found that the changes of ZJU index during follow-up was also independently associated with risk for incident NAFLD. ConclusionsBaseline ZJU index and absolute ZJU index changes independently predicts the risk for incident NAFLD in Chinese population.