Will China's household coal replacement policies pay off: A cost-benefit analysis from an environmental and health perspective

To improve air quality in northern China, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, the Chinese government has issued a series of coal replacement policies for clean heating in households in the region. However, little research evaluates the overall costs and benefits and the health co-benefits of the implementation of such policies. Analysis of the results of top-down policies rarely focuses on actual changes in the behavior of subjects at the micro level, leading to a divergence between policy design and evaluation. To quantify the actual implementation effects of China's coal replacement policies in the BTH region, this paper explores the costeffectiveness of these policies. To this end, we combine the results of a micro survey on household energy use behavior with a policy scenario analysis, take household size into account, and evaluate the environmental cost benefits and the health co-benefits of clean heating. The results show the implementation of coal replacement policies can significantly reduce CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions. And the cost-benefit analysis demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of China's coal replacement policies. Specifically, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020), by improving air quality in the BTH region, these clean heating policies brought cumulative health benefits of 36.73 billion yuan. Therefore, we conclude that China's clean heating policies can effectively reduce pollutant emissions and have health co-benefits. As we analyze the contribution of different alternative technologies to clean heating and take household size into account, our results can help policymakers formulate technology selection and subsidy policies.