A statistical analysis of fatal collisions and derailments of passenger trains on British Railways: 1967-1996

This paper presents a statistical analysis of collisions and derailments involving loaded or empty passenger trains on British Railways in the 30 year period 1967 to 1996 that resulted in fatalities to train occupants. The main conclusions are that there has been a long-term fall of about 4 per cent per year in the accident rate, from about three accidents to one accident per 20 billion passenger-miles between the start and the end of the period; that there is no significant difference in the accident rates of Mark 1 and post-Mark 1 passenger rolling stock; but that post-Mark 1 stock has significantly fewer fatalities per accident than Mark 1 stock. Estimates are made of the average savings in casualties that could be expected from further withdrawals of Mark 1 stock.