Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

被引：163

作者：

Tommasi, Desiree ^{[1
]}

Stock, Charles A. ^{[2
]}

Hobday, Alistair J. ^{[3
]}

Methot, Rick ^{[4
]}

Kaplan, Isaac C. ^{[5
]}

Eveson, J. Paige ^{[3
]}

Holsman, Kirstin ^{[6
]}

Miller, Timothy J. ^{[7
]}

Gaichas, Sarah ^{[7
]}

Gehlen, Marion ^{[8
]}

Pershing, Andrew ^{[9
]}

Vecchi, Gabriel A. ^{[2
]}

Msadek, Rym ^{[10
]}

Delworth, Tom ^{[2
]}

Eakin, C. Mark ^{[11
]}

Haltuch, Melissa A. ^{[4
]}

Seferian, Roland ^{[12
]}

Spillman, Claire M. ^{[13
]}

Hartog, Jason R. ^{[3
]}

Siedlecki, Samantha ^{[14
]}

Samhouri, Jameal F. ^{[5
]}

Muhling, Barbara ^{[1
]}

Asch, Rebecca G. ^{[1
]}

Pinsky, Malin L. ^{[15
,16
]}

Saba, Vincent S. ^{[17
]}

Kapnick, Sarah B. ^{[2
]}

Gaitan, Carlos F. ^{[2
,27
]}

Rykaczewski, Ryan R. ^{[18
]}

Alexander, Michael A. ^{[19
]}

Xue, Yan ^{[20
]}

Pegion, Kathleen V. ^{[21
]}

Lynch, Patrick ^{[22
]}

Payne, Mark R. ^{[23
]}

Kristiansen, Trond ^{[24
]}

Lehodey, Patrick ^{[25
]}

Werner, Francisco E. ^{[26
]}

机构：

[1] Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[2] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[3] CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[4] NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Seattle, WA 98112 USA

[5] NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Conservat Biol Div, Seattle, WA 98117 USA

[6] NOAA, Alaska Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Seattle, WA 98115 USA

[7] NOAA, Northeast Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA

[8] Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif Sur Yvette, France

[9] Gulf Maine Res Inst, Portland, ME 04101 USA

[10] CNRS, CERFACS, CECI, UMR 5318, Toulouse, France

[11] NOAA, Ctr Satellite Applicat & Res, Coral Reef Watch, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[12] Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, CNRS, UMR 3589, Meteo France, Toulouse, France

[13] Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[14] Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[15] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Nat Resources, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA

[16] Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA

[17] Princeton Univ, NOAA, Northeast Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv,Geophys Fluid Dynam La, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[18] Univ South Carolina, Dept Biol Sci, Marine Sci Program, Columbia, SC 29208 USA

[19] Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA

[20] NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, NCEP, NWS, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[21] George Mason Univ, Dept Atmospher Ocean & Earth Sci, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

[22] NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Off Sci & Technol, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA

[23] Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources, Charlottenlund, Denmark

[24] Inst Marine Res, Bergen, Norway

[25] Collecte Localisat Satellite, Toulouse, France

[26] NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Sci Ctr, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA

[27] Arable Labs, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA

来源：

PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY | 2017年 / 152卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; 1/12-DEGREES SPATIAL-RESOLUTION; MANAGEMENT STRATEGY EVALUATION; POLLOCK THERAGRA-CHALCOGRAMMA; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES; HARVEST CONTROL RULES; NORTH-ATLANTIC OCEAN; EASTERN BERING-SEA; TO-END MODELS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011

中图分类号：

P7 [海洋学];

学科分类号：

0707 ;

摘要：

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：15 / 49

页数：35

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