Why do analysts issue forecast revisions inconsistent with prior stock returns? Determinants and consequences

被引：6

作者：

Dong, Xiaobo ^{[1
]}

Lin, Kuan-Chen ^{[2
]}

Graham, Roger ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Houston Victoria, Sch Business Adm, Victoria, TX 77901 USA

[2] Oregon State Univ, Coll Business, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

来源：

ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE | 2016年 / 56卷 / 02期

关键词：

Analyst forecast revision; Forecast inconsistency; Forecast informativeness; EARNINGS FORECASTS; INFORMATION; UNCERTAINTY; PERFORMANCE; REPUTATION; ACCURACY; PRICES;

D O I：

10.1111/acfi.12101

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

We examine the informativeness of analyst forecast revisions that are directionally inconsistent with prior stock price movements (sign-inconsistent revisions). Sign-inconsistent revisions represent approximately one-half of the forecast revisions from 1995 through 2010. Our tests indicate that sign-inconsistent revisions are less informative than are sign-consistent revisions. Sign-inconsistent revisions are less likely to be closer to actual earnings realizations and they generate smaller stock price reactions. We also find evidence that sign-inconsistent revisions are associated with analysts' economic incentives to generate trading volume and their behavioural limitations related to information uncertainty. These results suggest that sign-inconsistent revisions do not necessarily benefit investors.

引用

页码：363 / 391

页数：29

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