Global modeling of nature's contributions to people

被引：265

作者：

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca ^{[1
,2
]}

Sharp, Richard P. ^{[1
]}

Weill, Charlotte ^{[1
]}

Bennett, Elena M. ^{[3
]}

Pascual, Unai ^{[4
,5
,6
]}

Arkema, Katie K. ^{[1
,7
]}

Brauman, Kate A. ^{[2
]}

Bryant, Benjamin P. ^{[1
,8
]}

Guerry, Anne D. ^{[1
,7
]}

Haddad, Nick M. ^{[9
]}

Hamann, Maike ^{[2
,10
]}

Hamel, Perrine ^{[1
]}

Johnson, Justin A. ^{[2
]}

Mandle, Lisa ^{[1
]}

Pereira, Henrique M. ^{[11
,12
,13
]}

Polasky, Stephen ^{[14
]}

Ruckelshaus, Mary ^{[1
,7
]}

Rebecca Shaw, M. ^{[15
]}

Silver, Jessica M. ^{[1
,7
]}

Vogl, Adrian L. ^{[1
]}

Daily, Gretchen C. ^{[1
,16
]}

机构：

[1] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Nat Capital Project, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[2] Univ Minnesota, Inst Environm, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[3] McGill Univ, Dept Nat Resource Sci, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada

[4] Univ Basque Country, Basque Ctr Climate Change, Sci Campus, Bilbao 48940, Spain

[5] Ikerbasque, Basque Fdn Sci, Bilbao 48013, Spain

[6] Univ Bern, Ctr Dev & Environm, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland

[7] Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[8] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Water West, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[9] Kellogg Biol Stn, Dept Integrat Biol, Hickory Corners, MI 49060 USA

[10] Univ Minnesota, Humphrey Sch Publ Affairs, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA

[11] Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, D-06108 Halle, Germany

[12] Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, Inst Biol, D-06112 Halle, Germany

[13] Univ Porto, InBIO Res Network Biodivers & Evolutionary Biol, CIBIO Res Ctr Biodivers & Genet Resources, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal

[14] Univ Minnesota, Dept Appl Econ, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[15] World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA

[16] Stanford Univ, Dept Biol, Ctr Conservat Biol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2019年 / 366卷 / 6462期

关键词：

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; SCENARIOS; INVEST; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aaw3372

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

引用

页码：255 / +

页数：77

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