Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

Objective. To determine the risk factors for the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Material and methods. A total of 620 patients who tested positive for hepatitis B surface antigen and were referred to Chiba University Hospital between February 1985 and March 2008 were included in the study and the following characteristics were analyzed: age, gender, status of hepatitis B e antigen, alanine aminotransferase level, HBV DNA level, and number of platelets (PLTs). Results. HCC was detected in 30 cases during the follow-up period (5.4 +/- 5.1 years). Multivariate analysis revealed that age > 40 years [compared with patients aged < 40 years; odds ratio (OR) = 4.28; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.68-10.9] and PLT level < 206, 000/mu l (compared with patients with a higher PLT level; OR = 8.50; 95% CI = 1.98-36.2) were predictive factors for HCC occurrence. In patients aged > 40 years, the HBV DNA level (compared with < 5.0 log copies/ml; OR = 4.22, 95% CI = 1.13-15.8) and PLT level (compared with patients with > 196,000/mu l PLTs; OR = 15.6, 95% CI = 2.06-118.3) were predictive factors for HCC occurrence. Conclusions. Advanced age and low PLT level were risk factors for HCC occurrence in patients with HBV infection. In patients aged > 40 years, viral load was also a risk factor for HCC.