Remote cloud ceiling assessment using data-mining methods

Data-mining methods are applied to numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and satellite data to develop automated algorithms for the diagnosis of cloud ceiling height in regions where no local observations are available at analysis time. A database of hourly records that include Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) output, satellite data, and ground truth observations [ aviation routine weather reports (METAR)] has been created. Data were collected over a 2.5-yr period for specific locations in California. Data-mining techniques have been applied to the database to determine relationships in the collected physical parameters that best estimate cloud ceiling conditions, with an emphasis on low ceiling heights. Algorithm development resulted in a three-step approach: 1) determine if a cloud ceiling exists, 2) if a cloud ceiling is determined to exist, determine if the ceiling is high or low ( below 1 000 m), and 3) if the cloud ceiling is determined to be low, compute ceiling height. A sample of the performance evaluation indicates an average absolute height error of 120.6 m with a 0.76 correlation and a root-mean-square error of 168.0 m for the low-cloud-ceiling testing set. These results are a significant improvement over the ceiling-height estimations generated by an operational translation algorithm applied to COAMPS output.