Diagnostic Classification and Prognostic Prediction Using Common Genetic Variants in Autism Spectrum Disorder: Genotype-Based Deep Learning

Background: In the United States, about 3 million people have autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and around 1 out of 59 children are diagnosed with ASD. People with ASD have characteristic social communication deficits and repetitive behaviors. The causes of this disorder remain unknown; however, in up to 25% of cases, a genetic cause can be identified. Detecting ASD as early as possible is desirable because early detection of ASD enables timely interventions in children with ASD. Identification of ASD based on objective pathogenic mutation screening is the major first step toward early intervention and effective treatment of affected children. Objective: Recent investigation interrogated genomics data for detecting and treating autism disorders, in addition to the conventional clinical interview as a diagnostic test. Since deep neural networks perform better than shallow machine learning models on complex and high-dimensional data, in this study, we sought to apply deep learning to genetic data obtained across thousands of simplex families at risk for ASD to identify contributory mutations and to create an advanced diagnostic classifier for autism screening. Methods: After preprocessing the genomics data from the Simons Simplex Collection, we extracted top ranking common variants that may be protective or pathogenic for autism based on a chi-square test. A convolutional neural network-based diagnostic classifier was then designed using the identified significant common variants to predict autism. The performance was then compared with shallow machine learning-based classifiers and randomly selected common variants. Results: The selected contributory common variants were significantly enriched in chromosome X while chromosome Y was also discriminatory in determining the identification of autistic individuals from nonautistic individuals. The ARSD, MAGEB16, and MXRA5 genes had the largest effect in the contributory variants. Thus, screening algorithms were adapted to include these common variants. The deep learning model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.955 and an accuracy of 88% for identifying autistic individuals from nonautistic individuals. Our classifier demonstrated a considerable improvement of similar to 13% in terms of classification accuracy compared to standard autism screening tools. Conclusions: Common variants are informative for autism identification. Our findings also suggest that the deep learning process is a reliable method for distinguishing the diseased group from the control group based on the common variants of autism.