Bioenergy potential in Germany - assessing spatial patterns of biomass production with aspen short-rotation coppice

The aim of this work is to provide policymakers with a tool to explore the actual and future energy potential of short-rotation coppice (SRC) in Germany. The ecophysiological model 4C was used to estimate mean annual yields of SRC with the species Populus tremula L. on arable land. The total potentially suitable area was calculated with GIS to be up to 12.9 mln ha. Growth simulations were performed on 7010 patches in Germany for a basis period (1987-2006) and 21 climate scenarios of different temperature increases (period 2041-2060). The simulations showed yearly mean timber yields of 5.86 tons dry mass per hectare in the basis period and 5.77 to 7.25 in the scenario periods. The variability of yields throughout Germany is also presented and overall annual potential yields of primary energy from different shares of agricultural lands allocated to SRC in Germany are analyzed. If 4 mln ha were used as SRC, between 415 and 522 PJ a(-1) of primary energy could be produced in the scenario periods.