National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 2020

被引:1
|
作者
Romero, Francine Sanders [1 ]
Romero, David W. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Texas San Antonio, 501 W Cesar E Chavez Blvd, San Antonio, TX 78207 USA
关键词
presidential election turnout; polarization; negative advertising; efficacy;
D O I
10.1177/1532673X211031816
中图分类号
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要
In an era when elections scholars expected American national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout's trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. This complicates our understanding as we have yet to settle on turnout's description, much less its explanation. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modeling of American national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modeling turnout's decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout's expected steady increase across the modern era (1952-2020). Second, we show that turnout's increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960-2012).
引用
收藏
页码:637 / 645
页数:9
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