EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA REGION, CHINA

Water resources in the Yangtze River Delta region have been suffering significant impacts of increasing extreme hydrological events associated with climate change. In the present work, the Taihu Basin was selected as the study area to quantify the effects of climate change on hydrological processes using an integrated modeling system, coupling the distributed hydrological model VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) with the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) generating future climate scenarios. The results indicate that the mean annual runoff under different future climate scenarios will increase, especially during flood seasons, which is consistent with the changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for both spatial and temporal distribution, implying more frequent occurrence of extreme floods in the future. These results are significant to future water resources management and sustainable development in the Yangtze River Delta region.