Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Changes in RIM Exchange Rate on Imports and Exports Trade in Heilongjiang Province

This paper investigates the effects of RMB exchange rate changes on imports and exports of Hei Long Jiang province (HLJ), from the study of the exchange rate level and exchange rate risk. By using the monthly data, it constructs an Imports and Exports Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and performs empirical estimates. The results indicate a co-integration relationship exists between imports and exports trade of HLJ and RMB nominal exchange rate, exchange risk respectively. It is obvious that RMB appreciation inhibits the merchandise export trade of HLJ, but such appreciation does not increase any imports. Furthermore, the exchange rate risk has a negative effect on merchandise imports and exports of HLJ.