Sustainable and Resilient Design of Interdependent Water and Energy Systems: A Conceptual Modeling Framework for Tackling Complexities at the Infrastructure-Human-Resource Nexus

A modeling framework was conceptualized for capturing the complexities in resilience and sustainability associated with integration of centralized and decentralized water and energy systems under future demographic, climate, and technology scenarios. This framework integrates survey instruments for characterizing individual preferences (utility functions) related to decentralization of water and energy infrastructure systems. It also includes a spatial agent-based model to develop spatially explicit adoption trajectories and patterns in accordance with utility functions and characteristics of the major metropolitan case study locations as well as a system dynamics model that considers interactions among infrastructure systems, characterizes measures of resilience and sustainability, and feeds these back to the agent-based model. A cross-scale spatial optimization model for understanding and characterizing the possible best case outcomes and for informing the design of policies and incentive/disincentive programs is also included. This framework is able to provide a robust capacity for considering the ways in which future development of energy and water resources can be assessed.