Ability to Predict New-Onset Psychological Distress Using Routinely Collected Health Data: A Population-Based Cohort Study of Women Diagnosed With Breast Cancer

Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to identify the predictors of new-onset psychological distress available in routinely collected administrative health databases for women diagnosed with breast cancer. The secondary objective was to explore whether the predictors vary based on the period of cancer care. Methods: A population-based cohort study followed 16,495 female patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer who did not experience psychological distress during the 14 months before breast cancer surgery. The incidence of psychological distress was reported overall and by type of mental health problem. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards models were developed to identify predictors of new-onset psychological distress during 2 key periods of cancer care: (1) hospital-based treatment during which women undergo treatment with breast surgery, chemotherapy, and/or radiation, and (2) 1-year transitional survivorship when women begin follow-up care. Results: The incidence of psychological distress was 16% within each period. Anxiety was present in 85.1% and 65.5% of new cases during hospital-based treatment and transitional survivorship, respectively. Predictors during both periods were younger age, receipt of axillary lymph node dissection, rheumatologic disease, and baseline menopausal symptoms, as well as new opioid dispensations, emergency department visits, and hospital contacts that occurred during follow-up. Other predictors varied based on the period of cancer care. More advanced breast cancer and type of treatment were associated with onset of psychological distress during hospital-based treatment. Psychological distress during transitional survivorship was predicted by diagnosis of localized breast disease, shorter duration of hospital-based treatment, receipt of additional hospital-based treatment in survivorship, and newly diagnosed comorbidities or symptoms. Conclusions: This study identified the predictors of new-onset psychological distress available in routinely collected administrative health databases, and showed how predictors change between hospital-based treatment and transitional survivorship periods. The results highlight the importance of developing predictive models tailored to the period of cancer care.