The impact of traffic violations on the estimated cost of traffic accidents with victims

We analyse accidents with victims and calculate the influence of traffic violations on the probability of having a serious or fatal accident, compared to a slight accident. Traffic violations related to speed limitations, administrative infringements or faults related to the driver are considered. Data were obtained from all available reports on accidents with victims that occurred in Spain from 2003 to 2005. A multinomial logistic regression model is specified to find the probability that an accident with victims is slight, serious or fatal, given the presence/absence of thirty different types of traffic violations. The average cost per victim and the average number of victims per accident are then used to find the estimated cost of an accident with victims, given the information on the traffic violations incurred. This demonstrates which combinations of traffic violations lead to higher estimated average costs, compared to cases in which no traffic violation occurred. We conclude with some recommendations on the severity of penalties, and suggest that regulators penalize the occurrences of some specific combinations of traffic violations more rigorously. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.