Long-term monitoring and prediction for settlement and composition of refuse in Shanghai Laogang Municipal Landfill

Parameters about composition of refuse such as mass percentage of biodegradable matter, volatile solid, organic carbon, cellulose, total sugar, and settlement were monitored and analyzed in a large-scale experimental unit. The empirical formulas between composition and refuse age were established in terms of the data obtained from the experimental unit and verified by comparing with the corresponding parameters of refuse in the closed landfill units from 1991 until 1994 in the Shanghai Laorgang Municipal Landfill. Furthermore, the long-term prediction for the composition of refuse was made, and it was predicted that the half-life is 7 to 11 years for biodegradable matter, 9 to 12 years for organic carbon or volatile solid, 7 to 16 years for cellulose, and 4 to 6 years for total sugar. In addition, a mathematical model, based on the mechanism of refuse biodegradation in the landfill, was developed to simulate the relationship between the settlement and the refuse age and manifests the secondary settlement potential. The mathematical model was proved not only to be reliable but also should be accurate for predicting the settlement of the landfill. The secondary settlement, which mainly results from the slow and gradual biodegradation of refuse, is linear with respect to the exponent of refuse age. Finally, according to the settlement model and empirical biodegradation formulas, it may be predicted that, 79.4% of biodegradable matter, 92.9% of total sugar, 72.7% of volatile solid and organic carbon, and 73.1% of cellulose will be biodegraded and that 79% of the maximum secondary settlement potential will occur before the Shanghai Laogang Municipal Landfill is in a high stabilization situation, i.e., approximately 21 years after final closure.