A simple model of intraseasonal oscillations

The intraseasonal oscillations and in particular the MJO have been and still remain a "holy grail'' of today's atmospheric science research. Why does the MJO propagate eastward? What makes it unstable? What is the scaling for the MJO, i.e., why does it prefer long wavelengths or planetary wave numbers 1-3? What is the westward moving component of the intraseasonal oscillation? Though linear WISHE has long been discounted as a plausible model for intraseasonal oscillations and the MJO, the version we have developed explains many of the observed features of those phenomena, in particular, the preference for large zonal scale. In this model version, the moisture budget and the increase of precipitation with tropospheric humidity lead to a "moisture mode.'' The destabilization of the large-scale moisture mode occurs via WISHE only and there is no need to postulate large-scale radiatively induced instability or negative effective gross moist stability. Our WISHE-moisture theory leads to a large-scale unstable eastward propagating mode in n = -1 case and a large-scale unstable westward propagating mode in n = 1 case. We suggest that the n = -1 case might be connected to the MJO and the observed westward moving disturbance to the observed equatorial Rossby mode.