Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Predictions by Crypto Experts?

被引：9
|
作者：
Gerritsen, Dirk F. [1 ]
Lugtigheid, Rick A. C. [1 ]
Walther, Thomas [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Utrecht, Utrecht Sch Econ, Utrecht, Netherlands
[2] Tech Univ Dresden, Fac Business & Econ, Dresden, Germany
来源：
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS | 2022年 / 46卷
关键词：
Bitcoin; Experts; Analysts; Market efficiency; Predictions; Forecasts; Cryptocurrencies; DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY; FORECASTS; PRICES;
D O I：
10.1016/j.frl.2021.102266
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
Using a hand-collected dataset containing bullish, neutral, and bearish predictions for Bitcoin published by crypto experts, we show that neutral and bearish predictions are followed by negative abnormal returns whereas bullish predictions are not associated with nonzero abnormal returns. Based on all outstanding predictions, we compute prediction revisions relative to (i) the latest issued prediction and (ii) the outstanding consensus prediction. Downward revisions are followed by negative abnormal returns. We conclude that crypto experts are skilled information intermediaries on the Bitcoin market.
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页数：7
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