Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error

被引：26

作者：

Kim, Seon Tae ^{[1
]}

Jeong, Hye-In ^{[1
]}

Jin, Fei-Fei ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] APEC Climate Ctr, Climate Predict Dept, Busan, South Korea

[2] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2017年 / 7卷

关键词：

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; PART I; VARIABILITY; STABILITY; AMPLITUDE; IMPACT; STATE; PREDICTABILITY; SIMULATION; CONVECTION;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-017-05221-3

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Nino Southern Oscillation ( ENSO)driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

引用

页数：9

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