A megamayor for all people? Voting behaviour and electoral success in the 1997 Toronto municipal election

In the 1997 municipal election, Mel Lastman defeated Barbara Hall to become the first mayor of the new megacity of Toronto, The two candidates had distinctly different styles and platforms, and each appealed to a particular demographic. Multiple regression techniques are used to determine the impact of voter turnout, incumbency and various socioeconomic factors on Lastman's and Hall's success rates across Toronto's 28 wards. Turnout, incumbency, the relative size of the immigrant population and the tenancy rate in each ward are found to be significant determinants of their respective vote shares. Some evidence is found to suggest that education level was also a factor.